Korea Policy Vol. 3, Issue 1

The U.S. presidential election marked the beginning of a new era of retrenchment. The new Donald Trump administration, inaugurated in January 2025, has swiftly shifted U.S. priorities to emphasize domestic issues while reshaping the global order. The U.S. government now favors transactional and zero-sum relations with other countries, including allies across Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The first few months of the second Trump administration have instilled deep uncertainty in Japan, the United States’ most important ally in the Indo-Pacific region. At a time when the country is grappling with a shaky and unpopular prime ministership under Shigeru Ishiba, it is paramount for Tokyo not to lose sight of its core national interests while focusing on specific areas of convergence with its longstanding ally and strengthening its position in the region.

Policy Recommendations

• Focus on China as a common challenge: The Trump administration has consistently highlighted China as a major threat, an assessment shared by Japan. Jointly countering China’s aggressive posture in the Indo-Pacific and strengthening U.S.-Japan coordination, specifically on economic security, could be a renewed focus and priority for both the Trump and Ishiba administrations. Differences in the U.S. and Japanese perspectives of the Chinese threat will continue to exist, but it is essential for officials in both countries not to lose sight of common challenges and objectives vis-à-vis China.
• Strengthening Japan’s position in existing minilaterals and diversifying partnerships: It is fundamental for Japan to show continued interest and investment in existing minilateral frameworks in the Indo-Pacific. At a time of U.S. retrenchment, minilaterals offer opportunities for Japan to showcase its own nuanced style of diplomacy and leadership in these frameworks. Japan can also serve as a bridge between the United States and other key actors in the Indo-Pacific, especially ASEAN countries. At the same time, Japan is incentivized to bolster its partnerships and build a strong network beyond the region— in particular, European countries offer various potential areas of cooperation, such as trade and defense, for Japan, which advances Japan’s goal of preserving the rules-based international order.
• Renewed U.S.-Japan emphasis on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision: Japan’s FOIP vision, unveiled in 2016 and wholeheartedly endorsed by the first Trump administration, could come back stronger at the center of U.S.-Japan relations and the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. FOIP has already implemented some successful initiatives through bilateral and multilateral cooperation on many different areas. The concept, which has been embraced by every Japanese prime minister since its announcement, could be revamped under the second Trump administration and highlighted in the U.S.-Japan alliance as an adaptable tool to preserve peace and stability in the region.