Vietnam’s Navigation of the Second Trump Administration

The second Donald Trump administration’s policy reversals are undermining three decades of U.S.-Vietnam reconciliation and cooperation, thereby weakening the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. As Vietnam seeks greater strategic space to maintain autonomy amid intensifying great power competition, the country will likely double down on its principles-based foreign policy and efforts to elevate its international standing. However, as U.S.-China tensions escalate, Vietnam will face increasing challenges in cultivating strategic neutrality. To counterbalance China’s influence, the United States must work more closely with allies and partners in the region, including Vietnam, and demonstrate long-term reliability.

Policy Recommendations

• Vietnam must prioritize reducing its trade dependencies to lessen the impacts of economic coercion. In doing so, the country should leverage its existing seventeen free trade agreements more effectively through targeted support programs that help businesses navigate complex trade frameworks. Developing robust public-private partnerships could also significantly reduce administrative compliance burdens and enhance trade facilitation.
• The United States must fundamentally rebuild trust with Vietnam. U.S. policymakers should frame concerns about China around its revisionist behavior rather than communist ideology, thereby avoiding mistrust with Vietnamese leaders.
• Most critically, the United States must fulfill its economic commitments and avoid sudden policy reversals that undermine long-term strategic planning.