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KEI Spotlight

Troy Stangarone on the Consequences of China's Informal Sanctions on South Korea

October 31, 2018

Looking back on China’s informal sanctions on South Korea over THAAD deployment, KEI Senior Director Troy Stangarone provides the Diplomat Magazine with his analysis on the potential longer-term consequences of the spat. While cognizant of the challenge associated with disaggregating the impact of informal sanctions from broader market dynamics, there is no doubt that China’s actions had exacerbated the performance of Korean firms operating in China. In particular, Lotte Mart and the tourism sector stand out as the biggest victims of the dispute. However, more worryingly, there had been little public support for South Korea from the United States – quite the opposite, China’s pressure campaign against Seoul coincided with President Trump’s demand for reimbursement for the battery system. This not only establishes a bad precedent, but also leaves the US-ROK alliance still unprepared to address future informal sanctions from Beijing to influence Seoul’s national security decisions.

Please find the article here (paywall)