The drivers for a South Korean lead role on the peninsula and a broader role for the alliance’s combined defense posture beyond it may be greater than ever.

Concern is rising in Seoul that fundamental changes in the role of United States Forces Korea (USFK) may be underway.

There is a significant gap between rhetoric and the U.S.-ROK alliance’s preparedness to navigate an actual conflict over Taiwan.

Assuming Yoon is eventually removed from office, a South Korean presidential election is held, and a progressive ROK administration returns to office—with markedly different national security and foreign policy priorities—it is unlikely the NCG’s expedited progress reviewed above will continue apace. Yet only time will tell exactly how it will evolve in the future.

What is certain is that US defense and military officials will increasingly view the alliance through the lens of US-China competition.