The most important single variable for any trade-dependent country like Korea is robust and sustainable growth for the world economy. Korea takes a sharp hit to its exports, and thus its economic growth, from any sharp global turndown à la 2008–09, let alone a period of prolonged stagnation or especially recession as in the 1930s. Driven by the emerging markets, global growth looks like it’s running at a highly satisfactory 4 to 4.5 percent at least through 2012—although a lagging Japan and a sluggish United States detract somewhat from Korea’s export prospects.