On Korea: Academic Paper Series
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On Korea: Academic Paper Series 2019About On Korea: Academic Paper Series
In December 2006, KEI initiated our Academic Paper Series in which we commission up to 10 papers per year with diverse perspectives on original subjects of current interest to Korea watchers. This year-long program provides both leading Korea scholars and new voices from around the world to speak and write on trends and events affecting the Korean peninsula.
A coherent North Korea strategy must proceed from a theory of North Korean politics, strategy, and decision-making. Structured analytic techniques, particularly the analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH), are instrumental in developing a theory and strategy. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs serve a blend of internal and external purposes. A successful strategy that renders North Korean denuclearization must account for both types of purposes, determining which of the two are predominant. Applying ACH can assist in making such an assessment, setting a level of confidence, designing a strategy, and determining measures to assess the analytic foundation of the strategy and the measures used in executing the strategy. This paper tees up four potential hypotheses intended to explore North Korean intentions and assist in developing strategy. However, the intention of the paper is not primarily to make a case for a given hypothesis, but rather to explore the method in the hope that others may find the method useful and apply it to the important undertaking of North Korean denuclearization.