Now Is the Time to Manage the U.S.-South Korea Alliance

The security situation on the Korean Peninsula is once again in a state of significant flux after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a scaling back of combined U.S.-South Korea military exercises to facilitate the resumption of dialogue between the United States and North Korea.  The announcement echoes a similar decision made in June 2018, when, ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, Trump suspended joint military exercises shortly after holding his first summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore. However, the current situation is vastly different and far more complex. With the midterm elections just over two months away and the war with Iran dragging on, the Trump administration finds itself in need of a change in momentum and tangible diplomatic achievements. Under these circumstances, if renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue becomes intertwined with domestic political pressures, the uncertainty and risks surrounding the U.S.-South Korea alliance could grow further.

The most immediate and pressing issue is the lack of clarity regarding the ultimate objective of U.S.-North Korea dialogue. President Trump has refrained from mentioning North Korea’s denuclearization as he seeks to bring Kim back to the negotiating table. However, this approach unsettles regional allies such as South Korea and Japan; it significantly undermines confidence in U.S. security commitments and pushes allies to seek alternative ways to ensure their own security and survival.

Meanwhile, North Korea currently has little reason to rush back into talks with the United States. Unlike in the past, when Pyongyang engaged in summits out of a desperate need for sanctions relief, the international security environment has changed significantly. At a time when the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea are all signaling interest in engaging North Korea, Kim is likely to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach until a negotiating environment favorable to his interests emerges. 

At a time like this, friction within the U.S.-South Korea alliance presents an opportunity for North Korea. By treating South Korea as a hostile state and rejecting inter-Korean dialogue, North Korea has already significantly narrowed the South’s diplomatic capacity to serve as a pacemaker between Washington and Pyongyang. If alliance cohesion were to weaken even further under these circumstances, there is a high probability that North Korea would engage in bilateral talks with the United States to fully exploit the rift between Washington and Seoul. 

Therefore, this is a critical moment requiring careful management of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Washington and Seoul should consider dispatching high-level envoys to quickly address the fallout from the decision to scale back joint military exercises and actively manage the alliance. Both sides should also separate thorny bilateral issues, such as tariffs, investments, and the Coupang dispute, from security matters and focus on resolving them through dedicated channels. Meanwhile, the allies should engage in close consultations and reach a prior consensus on the goals and principles of any renewed dialogue with North Korea. In addition, they need to develop new forms of leverage that go beyond existing frameworks in preparation for future talks with Pyongyang.

A U.S.-North Korea summit would no longer be confined solely to issues of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s participation in the war in Ukraine and its advancing long-range ballistic missile capabilities have transformed the North Korean challenge into a global security issue that affects not only the Indo-Pacific region, but also the security of Europe and the U.S. homeland. In this sense, a U.S.-North Korea summit could provide a crucial opportunity to alleviate tensions across regions and restore stability on and beyond the peninsula. However, if such dialogue proceeds without adequate prior coordination and sufficient preparation between Washington and Seoul, it could instead undermine their shared interests and further increase uncertainty in the region.

The two governments must therefore maintain the robust U.S.-South Korea alliance as a constant in U.S.-North Korea dialogue. The moment the alliance shifts from a constant to a variable, the space for South Korea’s security interests to be represented in U.S.-North Korea negotiations will rapidly diminish—and the alliance itself risks ending up on the negotiating table. The U.S.-North Korea dialogue should not become a negotiation that weakens the alliance. It should instead be grounded in a strong alliance, and the United States should use it to strengthen stability on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. That is the most critical preparation Washington and Seoul must now undertake.

This article was originally published in Korean in Hankook Ilbo on August 28.

Ellen Kim is Senior Fellow and Director of Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). The views expressed here are the author’s alone.

This material is distributed by KEI on behalf of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.