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The Peninsula

Since Trump’s Election, the U.S.-Korea Trade Deficit Has Been Reduced by One-Third

Published July 24, 2017

By Phil Eskeland 

Last March, President Donald Trump directed the Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to prepare an Omnibus Report on Significant Trade Deficits within 90 days.  South Korea has been identified as a country that would be included in this report based on 2016 data that shows U.S. goods exports to Korea declined and the trade deficit has grown since the implementation of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA).  While awaiting completion of the report, USTR also issued a letter to Korea asking for a special meeting of the Joint Committee to discuss possible amendments and modifications to the KORUS FTA to address the “significant trade imbalance” between the U.S. and the Republic of Korea.   However, both efforts use outdated statistics with respect to the latest data in the U.S.-Korea trade relationship.

Since President Trump was elected in November, the monthly bilateral merchandise trade imbalance between the U.S. and South Korea has been less that the previous year.  Thus, the six month (December through May) cumulative goods deficit has been cut by more than one-third (or 34 percent) as compared to same six-month time period from the previous year.  One reason for this reduction is that for the months of December, March, April, and May, the U.S. has hit repeated record levels of merchandise exports to Korea – $4.27 billion in December, $4.36 billion in March, $4.43 billion in April, and $4.5 billion in May.  While trade statistics are not available from the U.S. government yet for the month of June, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) reported that South Korea imported a record $4.8 billion in goods from the United States in June, resulting in yet another month in which the bilateral merchandise trade deficit was significantly less than last year’s level.

Trade Data 7.2017-02

This trend is even more pronounced when you include services trade.   Comparing the combined trade imbalance statistic of the 4th Quarter 2015 and 1st Quarter 2016 with the 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017[1] (in other words, since Trump’s nomination for president), the trade deficit in both goods and services between the U.S. and the ROK dropped by 37 percent.

Trade Data 7.2017-01

This updated information should be incorporated in any analysis of the bilateral trade deficit and as part of any administration strategy to reduce the trade imbalance between the U.S. and South Korea.  It appears that the free market and the KORUS FTA is already working to accomplish the Trump Administration’s goal with respect to lowering the trade deficit between the two countries.

[1] 2nd Quarter 2017 data on trade in services will not be made available until early September.

Phil Eskeland is Executive Director for Operations and Policy at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are his own.
Image from Tom Driggers’ photostream on flickr Creative Commons.      

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